3/11/2023 0 Comments Foresight health![]() ![]() Where improved treatment protocols are available, they might decrease the rates of mortality and serious complications. Depending on the effectiveness of public health measures, continuing levels of infection might be treatable within the limits of well-developed healthcare systems. In one scenario, COVID-19 would become endemic across most of the world. ![]() And even if they do, how might we manage possible mutations of the virus? Will the pandemic persist? Or will immunity, an eventual vaccine, or public health measures extinguish it? And if there is a vaccine or treatment, how and when could it be widely deployed? home-based testing)?Īt the time of writing (July 2020), it remains unclear whether people will develop long-lasting immunity to COVID-19. In the short term, how long will it take to produce mass testing capacity? And how might new technologies evolve (e.g. There are many immediate and longer-term uncertainties. Our capacity to control COVID-19-either through a preventative vaccine or effective treatments-will shape our ability to influence our futures. The greatest uncertainties about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are, unsurprisingly, about the trajectory of the virus itself, and the abilities of governments to manage it with medicine. Trajectory of COVID-19: Can safe, effective medical interventions control the virus? Pandemics: More frequent and devastating occurrences may be likely.Mental health: Will trauma be short-lived or sustained?.Long-term physical distancing: What factors cause individuals and groups to break the rules?.Access to vaccines and treatment: Competitive markets or public goods?.Trajectory of COVID-19: Can safe, effective medical interventions control the virus?.Foresight-the assessment of what might happen or be needed in the future-is more needed than ever. The number of “known unknowns” is extremely high. Many seasoned foresight practitioners, forecasters, and experts believe the world is experiencing the highest level of economic, political, and social uncertainty in decades. ![]() conversations with national and international foresight practitioners, experts, and stakeholders.engagements and collaborations across government departments and agencies.In line with its mandate, Policy Horizons aims to contribute to GoC policy makers’ thinking about the potential medium- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications for policy.Īmongst its activities, Policy Horizons conducts research on the question: “What shifts might we experience in the medium term that challenge our policy assumptions and tools?”Īs such, Policy Horizons is engaged in a scanning exercise that includes: Policy Horizons Canada (Policy Horizons) is a strategic foresight organization within the Government of Canada (GoC), with a mandate to help the Government develop future-oriented policy and programs that are more robust and resilient in the face of disruptive change on the horizon. Annex 1: External stakeholders and expertsīack to top About our COVID-19 foresight research.Using foresight in policy making under high uncertainty It does not provide specific policy guidance to address COVID-19, and is not meant to predict the future. The purpose of this document is to support forward-looking thinking and inform decision making. The content reflects desk research, expert interviews, conversations and workshops with policy makers, and literature reviews that took place between March and July 2020. It also includes sections on using foresight in policy making, including working with scenarios, identifying policy implications, testing assumptions, and practicing visions thinking. It explores some potential changes, disruptions, and shifts that may arise due to COVID-19, highlights some critical uncertainties, and considers future-relevant questions. This document reflects research on the potential medium- to long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic by Policy Horizons Canada. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |